SELDOM does a visit by a United States president to the region attract more than the necessary attention. This time, however, Barack Obama’s trip to the region — covering South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Malaysia — is coming on for real for good reasons.
His main message to the leaders of these countries will no doubt focus on China and how they should order their relations with it.
Obama will give assurances of continued support from the US and will at the same time need reassurances from all the four countries not to push China into a corner. This is necessary as it is in the US’ larger security and strategic interests to keep China and its affairs of state on an even keel.
For this, the US would want China to be brought in into all future political, security and economic developments affecting the region, especially in matters involving the US-sponsored Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
The idea behind all these is to avoid a bloc mentality, with the US on one side and China on the other, from ever emerging in East Asia and Southeast Asia, where a network of interlocking relationships has taken hold in and among all the states based on geography, history and values.
During Obama’s visit, we can expect to see and hear expressions of assurances and reassurances coming from the US as well as from all the four countries.
Japan will be urged to show restraint on China’s flexing of its military muscles over the islands dispute, as a Japanese flare up may not be good for peace and stability in East Asia.
Inside South Korea, tempers have arisen among Koreans over the Japanese reaction on the issue of comfort women. There is fear that a domestic upheaval in Korea may invite repartees from North Korea with the consequent security fall out in the tensed Korean Peninsula concerning the nuclear issue.
If anything, any hostilities that would flare up between the two, however small in magnitude, must be avoided as this will invite a negative response from China. Obama is expected to offer reassurances of support for the South Korean position in this case.
Moving on to the Philippines, where relations between it and China soured over overlapping claims of islands in the South China Sea followed by the return and counter-return of manoeuvres by the respective navies of either country in recent periods, the US States and Asean, of which Philippines is a member, had raised their fears.
While it is obvious that China does not want a conflict with any of its southern neighbours, the possibility of a low-level strategic deterrence posture from China can never be ruled out.
Regional solidarity being a significant concept in Asean, Malaysia has taken steps to push China to take a decision on the issue of its historical claims on the islands in the South China Sea.
The US will wish that the matter will not come to a conflict situation with China, and has been urging dialogue and negotiations for all parties.
Time will tell whether having a more friendly China on Asean’s doorstep will work for the latter’s long-term interest.
The US can help here. Adversarial relationship days are gone in international relations.
Instead, we see a new international order of a multilateral humanist nature, where values of tolerance and mutual understanding can work to uphold peace and prosperity together for the world.
As a parting assurance, the US will no doubt extend understanding and assistance to ensure Malaysia’s moderation thrust in foreign policy will gain more ground with China and inside the US.
-NST
